Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive (Maintain)" [32] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the gold price has adjusted due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with London spot gold down by 1.60% and Shanghai gold down by 1.86% [32][49] - The copper market is under pressure with a decline in prices, while downstream operations remain high, leading to a continuous reduction in domestic inventory [32][79] - The aluminum sector is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to seasonal demand weakness, with both London and Shanghai aluminum prices declining [32][62] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations, indicating a potential positive economic outlook [38] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments suggest a slowdown in interest rate cuts, which may impact market expectations for 2025 [39] 1.2 Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70%, while the non-ferrous metals sector dropped by 3.09%, underperforming the index by 2.39 percentage points [43] - The report lists the top five gainers and losers in the sector, indicating significant volatility among individual stocks [43] 1.3 Valuation Changes - The PB_LF valuation for the non-ferrous metals sector is reported at 2.05 times, a decrease of 0.04 times from the previous week, while the overall A-share market's PB_LF is at 1.60 times [22][49] - The PE_TTM valuation for the sector stands at 18.90 times, reflecting a decrease of 0.33 times from the previous week [49] 2. Precious Metals - The report details price movements for various precious metals, including a 6.31% drop in London spot silver and a 4.50% drop in Shanghai silver [24][49] - The report suggests that the market's inflation concerns have eased slightly, contributing to the recovery in gold prices [32] 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have decreased by 2.12% in London and 1.30% in Shanghai, with significant inventory reductions noted [30][79] - The report indicates that the aluminum sector is facing challenges due to seasonal demand and price declines, with aluminum processing margins worsening [32][62] 4. Minor Metals - The report mentions mixed price trends for minor metals, with some showing increases while others decline [32]
有色金属 大宗金属周报（2024/12/16/-2024/12/20）：美联储“鹰派降息”，金价调整
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-12-22 10:12