食品饮料行业周观点：五粮液1218释放信号，微信送礼打开食品新场景

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight [5] Core Views - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with structural prosperity remaining unchanged, and leading companies like Wuliangye are demonstrating resilience and strategic advantages during the adjustment period [1] - The beer sector shows signs of stabilization, with potential for recovery in 2025 driven by policy stimulus and improved consumer confidence [2] - The beverage sector is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, supported by extended holidays and recovery in travel scenarios [2] - The food sector is benefiting from new gifting scenarios enabled by WeChat's "Send Gifts" feature, which is expected to boost sales during the holiday season [3] Liquor Industry - Wuliangye's 1218 Dealer Conference signaled positive developments, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing prices, improving sales efficiency, and ensuring reasonable profits for dealers [1] - The industry is expected to see gradual improvement in both volume and price, supported by macroeconomic policies [1] - Key investment themes include leading companies with strong market positions, regional liquor companies with high certainty, and recovery-driven stocks [7] Beer Sector - Beer production in November 2024 increased by 5.7% YoY to 1.695 million tons, driven by low base effects and policy stimulus [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from recovery in dining-out scenarios and favorable weather conditions in 2025 [2] - Companies with strong execution capabilities and large single-product growth potential are recommended [2] Beverage Sector - Soft drink production in November 2024 reached 11.037 million tons, up 5.0% YoY, with growth slowing due to a higher base [2] - The sector is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by extended holidays and recovery in travel scenarios [2] - Companies with refined channel management and strong strategic execution are preferred [2] Food Sector - WeChat's "Send Gifts" feature is expected to create new consumption scenarios, particularly during the holiday season [3] - Snack companies with strong online operations and gifting attributes are likely to benefit from this trend [3] - Companies like Three Squirrels, Yanjin Shop, and Haoxiangni have already integrated with the WeChat gifting platform [3] Investment Recommendations - Liquor: Focus on leading companies, regional liquor companies with high certainty, and recovery-driven stocks [7] - Consumer Goods: Look for companies benefiting from policy stimulus or recovery, as well as those with high growth potential [7] - Food: Prioritize companies with strong online operations and gifting attributes [7]