宽货币预期难证伪，债市继续走强

Market Overview - During the week of December 16-22, government bond futures experienced fluctuations and ultimately rose[1] - As of December 20, the settlement prices for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures were 103.066, 106.685, 108.860, and 118.240 yuan, reflecting changes of +0.168, +0.275, +0.320, and +0.470 yuan respectively compared to the previous week[1] Economic Data Impact - November financial and economic data fell short of market expectations, leading to a strong opening for government bond futures on Monday[1] - Key economic indicators included a year-on-year growth in fixed asset investment of 3.3%, retail sales growth of 3.0%, and industrial production growth of 5.4%[1] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment, with a low probability of significant negative factors emerging[1] - Investment strategies suggested include maintaining existing positions, focusing on steepening yield curve strategies, and considering short hedging strategies to lock in previous gains[1] Interest Rate Trends - As of December 20, the yields for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.08%, 1.38%, 1.71%, and 1.96%, showing declines of 9.40, 5.47, 6.49, and 4.50 basis points respectively[1] - The DR007 rate was reported below 1.6%, indicating limited downward space for policy rates[1] Financing and Market Activity - This week, the net financing amount for government bonds was -724.55 billion yuan, with total issuance and net financing for local government bonds at 357.77 billion and 150.05 billion yuan respectively[1] - The average daily trading volume for government bond futures was reported at 42606, 73081, 90173, and 98935 contracts for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds respectively, indicating an increase in trading activity[1]