策略周专题（2024年12月第3期）：美联储降息节奏变化对市场有何影响？

Market Performance - The A-share market showed significant divergence this week, with the STAR 50 index rising by 2.17% while the CSI 500 index fell by -1.19%[50] - The communication, electronics, and banking sectors had the highest gains, with increases of 4.3%, 3.6%, and 0.8% respectively, while the light industry, real estate, and construction materials sectors experienced the largest declines, dropping by 5.0%, 4.8%, and 4.7% respectively[69] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has led to a market expectation of a slowdown in future rate cuts, with the current target range set at 4.25%-4.5%[54] - Historical patterns suggest that the impact of the Fed's rate cuts may be quickly absorbed by the market, similar to the reactions observed in 2019[75] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index has surpassed the historical average since 2010, indicating a potential for further valuation increases driven by policy support and market liquidity[38] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the ChiNext index is at a historical low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in growth sectors[46] Sector Analysis - The cyclical sectors, along with export and domestic substitution industries, have shown superior performance following the Fed's rate cut, mirroring trends from previous rate cut cycles[79] - The valuation of the real estate and computer sectors is at historical highs, while social services and agriculture sectors are at historical lows, indicating a potential shift in investment focus[49]