建筑装饰行业研究周报：基建投资保持景气，财政政策有望更加积极

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment remains robust, with fiscal policies expected to become more proactive. The report highlights that broad infrastructure investment continues to gain momentum, with significant support from the central government's economic policies [1][19][46] - The report anticipates that the growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments in 2024 will be 7.88% and 5.27%, respectively, with structural and regional characteristics being prominent [27][30] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment Trends - From January to November 2024, real estate development investment decreased by 10.4%, while narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments increased by 4.2% and 9.4%, respectively. In November alone, real estate development investment fell by 9.8%, while narrow and broad infrastructure investments rose by 3.3% and 9.7% [5][6] - The report emphasizes that municipal and water conservancy investments are expanding, indicating that infrastructure investment remains a crucial driver of economic growth [5][6] Fiscal Policy Insights - The central economic work conference has set a fiscal deficit rate of 3% for 2024, with plans to issue special bonds totaling 3.9 trillion yuan. This marks the first time since the 18th National Congress that the fiscal deficit rate has been proposed to be increased [19][47] - The report suggests that the release of 10 trillion yuan in debt relief funds will significantly improve the financial statements of construction companies, enhancing their valuations and dividends [1][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: 1. Optimizing supply-demand dynamics with high-quality development of central state-owned enterprises 2. Targeting high-growth sectors aligned with new productive forces 3. Concentrating on high-quality international engineering projects in overseas markets [27][30] - Key sectors expected to maintain high growth include water conservancy, major transportation infrastructure, and urban comprehensive pipelines [27][30]