定量策略周报：跌出来的机会，涨出来的风险

Investment Highlights - The report indicates that gold and long-term US Treasury bonds have experienced a pullback due to rising expectations of secondary inflation, but they remain favorable under most scenarios except for a "no landing" situation in 2025, suggesting a high probability of gains when bought on dips [5][39] - In the A-share market, the only sector with net inflows in the past week is consumer discretionary, while essential consumer goods and financials have seen slight profit-taking despite being on an upward trend. Real estate is noted as a sector to watch, as selling pressure appears weak despite some bearish events [5][39] - The report emphasizes that growth style investments are favored during periods of secondary inflation, recommending a strategy that combines dividend stocks with growth-oriented technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector [42] Market Overview - The report discusses the support for the US stock market's rise in Q4, highlighting that retail, cross-border, and corporate buybacks have begun to decline, with institutional short positions increasing at the highest weekly rate since 2022. Expectations for at least four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 are also mentioned, indicating potential volatility ahead [8][38] - The report notes that the Northbound capital flow continues to see outflows, with trading volumes affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, leading to a quick recovery in net positions in the A-share market. The risk appetite is expected to remain low as the year-end approaches [19][26] ETF Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Media ETF (512980) and Information Security ETF (159613) for the week, indicating a strategic focus on sectors that are expected to perform well in the current market environment [43]