宏观策略周报：政策拐点已至，优化资产配置

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for proactive policy measures to address economic challenges, highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand and implementing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [24][26][27] - The focus on "Artificial Intelligence+" is expected to accelerate the application of AI across various sectors, including education, media, smart home, and healthcare, which may present investment opportunities [27][41] - The report indicates that the A-share market has completed initial valuation repairs, with future performance likely dependent on policy and economic developments [56] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference for 2024 prioritizes "comprehensively expanding domestic demand," indicating a shift towards more aggressive consumption and investment policies [24][26] - The report notes that the monetary policy has transitioned to a more accommodative stance, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and liquidity support in 2025 [26][32] - There is a recognition of the marginal improvement in high-frequency economic data since September 2024, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing and real estate sectors [28][29] Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors for potential investment, including technology and self-sufficiency, with a focus on semiconductors, national defense, and industrial machinery [41] - Mergers and acquisitions are highlighted as a theme, particularly for state-owned enterprises looking to enhance their market value through restructuring [41] - The report suggests that consumer sectors such as food and beverage, beauty care, and tourism may see valuation recovery due to policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption [6][41] Market Performance and Valuation - Recent market performance shows a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.62% during the last reporting period [18][19] - The report notes that the current price-to-earnings ratio for the A-share market is 18.77 times, indicating that the market has undergone initial valuation adjustments [56] - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. monetary policy on the Chinese market, particularly regarding interest rate expectations and trade policies [2][3][4]