Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on crops and livestock, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming years [6][10]. Core Insights - The global corn supply and demand balance shows a projected increase in production from 1,016.03 million tons in 2014/15 to 1,217.89 million tons in 2024/25, with a slight fluctuation in ending stocks [2]. - The soybean oil production forecast for 2024/25 is 6.6 million tons, with domestic consumption at 6.5 million tons, indicating a stable market with a slight decrease in the stock-to-consumption ratio [6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic consumption of soybean meal, projected to rise from 201.74 million tons in 2014/15 to 266.60 million tons in 2024/25 [8]. - The cotton supply and demand balance in China shows a stable production level, with ending stocks expected to remain around 7.90 million tons by 2024/25 [10]. Summary by Sections Corn Market - Initial stocks are projected to decrease from 174.80 million tons in 2014/15 to 316.22 million tons in 2024/25, while production is expected to stabilize around 1,217.89 million tons [2]. - Domestic consumption is anticipated to grow from 981.01 million tons in 2014/15 to 1,237.66 million tons in 2024/25, reflecting a robust demand [2]. Soybean Market - The soybean meal production is expected to increase from 207.98 million tons in 2014/15 to 272.48 million tons in 2024/25, with imports also showing a steady rise [8]. - The ending stocks for soybean meal are projected to be around 16.74 million tons by 2024/25, indicating a healthy supply chain [8]. Cotton Market - The cotton production in China is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in ending stocks from 7.27 million tons in 2022/23 to 7.90 million tons in 2024/25 [10]. - Domestic consumption is projected to be around 8.18 million tons by 2024/25, reflecting a consistent demand in the market [10]. Livestock and Poultry - The report indicates a growth in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a total of 14.38 million pigs expected to be processed in November 2024, a 4.2% increase year-on-year [44]. - The average price of broiler chicks is projected to fluctuate, with a current price of 50.02 yuan per set, showing a week-on-week decrease [14].
农林牧渔行业周报:生猪出栏均重持续攀升,白羽种鸡性能下降且鸡病严重
Huaan Securities·2024-12-22 12:58