农林牧渔行业周报：生猪供给充足持续放量，猪价中枢或进一步下移
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-12-22 13:15

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [21] Core Viewpoints - The profitability of broiler chicken farming is improving, and the low inventory of yellow feathered breeding chickens may support prices [3] - The supply of live pigs is abundant and continues to increase, which may lead to a further decline in pig prices [28] - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a loss phase by Q1 2025 due to oversupply and declining demand [14] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the average price of live pigs as of December 19, 2024, is 15.41 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from the previous week [4][28] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 130.68 kg, which is higher than the same period in 2021 [28] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.95 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 3.65% [36][49] - The seed sector led the gains, with stocks like Guibao Pet (+6.11%) and Yuehai Feed (+5.36%) showing strong performance [36] Key News - The total grain production in China for 2024 is projected to be 1.413 trillion jin, an increase of 22.18 billion jin year-on-year [42][54] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the importance of ensuring food security and enhancing the supply capacity of key agricultural products [55] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs is 15.41 yuan/kg, with a feed-to-pig price ratio of 4.6:1 [44] - The average price of piglets is 28.60 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week [44] - The average price of white feathered chicken is 7.54 yuan/kg, with a profit margin of -1.44 yuan per chicken [62] Industry Recommendations - The pig farming sector shows investment value, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [17][23] - The biotechnology sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech due to the acceleration of transgenic industrialization [48]