宏观经济宏观周报：国内经济增长动能环比回升

Economic Growth - Domestic economic growth momentum has rebounded on a month-on-month basis, with the Guosen high-frequency macro diffusion index A turning positive and index B slightly recovering[25] - Investment and consumption sectors have shown marginal improvements, with consumption stabilizing and investment turning upward from previous declines[25] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have remained stable; December CPI for food is expected to be around -0.5% month-on-month, with overall CPI at approximately -0.1%[25] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to rise by about 0.1% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year decline expected to improve to -2.1%[56] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of December 27, 2024[25] - The deviation between predicted and actual ten-year government bond yields has reached a historical high of 69 basis points, indicating a significant divergence from the macroeconomic fundamentals captured by the diffusion index[36] Agricultural Prices - As of December 20, the agricultural wholesale price index has shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, significantly below the historical average of 1.7%[19] - The December agricultural product price index is expected to be around -0.9% month-on-month, lower than the historical average of 1.0%[40]