宏观点评：美国政府停摆风险暂时缓解

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cuts have led to cautious expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with market participants divided on the outlook[1] - The Taylor rule suggests the upper limit for the Fed's policy rate in 2025 will be 3.73% for Q1-Q3 and 3.58% for Q4[1] - Analysts predict the Fed's policy rate upper limits for 2025 Q1-Q4 to be 4.25%, 4.0%, 3.75%, and 3.75% respectively, indicating one rate cut in Q1-Q3 and no cuts in Q4[1] - Traders expect one rate cut by June 2025, with a total of 1.55 cuts (38.8 basis points) by December 2025[1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median expectation of 2 rate cuts in 2025, corresponding to a policy rate upper limit of 4.0%[1] Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2024 was revised up from +2.8% to +3.1%, with private consumption also revised up from +3.5% to +3.7%[38] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts Q4 2024 GDP growth at +3.1%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model predicts +1.90%[38] - Analysts' consensus for U.S. GDP growth from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 is 2.3%, 1.9%, 2.0%, 2.0%, and 2.0% respectively, with a 25% probability of recession in the next year[38] - The PCE inflation index for November showed lower-than-expected results, with year-on-year core inflation at +2.8%[55] - Analysts have adjusted their inflation expectations upward for 2025, with CPI growth forecasted at 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.5% for Q1 to Q4 respectively[55]