宏观量化经济指数周报：基建投资有望开启增长

Economic Indicators - As of December 22, 2024, the ECI supply index is at 50.53%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, up 0.01 percentage points[11] - The ECI investment index is at 50.02%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, and the ECI consumption index remains stable at 49.50%[11] - The ELI index stands at -0.93%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week, indicating ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[2] Industrial Production and Investment - December industrial production continues to show improvement year-on-year, with major industry operating rates experiencing seasonal fluctuations but overall positive trends[31] - Infrastructure investment is expected to gain momentum, supported by the issuance of special bonds aimed at replacing existing hidden debts, with a total of 2 trillion yuan issued[16] - The average daily sales of passenger vehicles reached 83,204 units in mid-December, a year-on-year increase of 16,254 units, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand[60] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The December LPR remains unchanged, aligning with market expectations, while the bond yields have declined rapidly, indicating a potential pre-emptive pricing of 20-30 basis points rate cuts[2] - The net monetary injection this week is 1,139.8 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1,678.3 billion yuan in reverse repos[91] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for a 0.25%-0.50% reduction in reserve requirements on December 25, 2024[2] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns about a short-term "export rush" phenomenon and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector[17] - The divergence in consumer spending continues, with retail sales of passenger vehicles showing resilience while travel-related data declines[16]