建筑装饰行业周报：明年地方建筑国企有哪些投资亮点？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the construction and decoration industry, including Tunnel Shares, Shanghai Construction, Anhui Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that increased fiscal spending and debt replacement measures are expected to drive infrastructure investment growth in 2024, particularly in economically strong provinces and regions with policy support [5][48]. - It highlights the potential for significant recovery in the financial performance of local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to improved cash flow and asset-liability management, especially for those previously under debt pressure [51]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment Outlook - The report predicts a substantial increase in infrastructure investment growth in 2024, with a projected growth rate significantly exceeding the 12% forecast based on financial expenditure methods [48]. - It notes that the easing of local debt pressures will allow for more funds to be allocated to infrastructure projects, enhancing the revenue and performance of construction-focused local SOEs [5][48]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Tunnel Shares, Shanghai Construction, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and expected benefits from increased infrastructure spending [5][22]. - The report also suggests focusing on companies like Shaanxi Construction, Longjian Construction, and Chongqing Construction, which have high receivables relative to their net assets and are likely to see significant performance rebounds [51]. Regional Focus - The report identifies economically strong regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as likely to lead infrastructure investment due to favorable fiscal conditions and high investment demand [22]. - It also points out that regions like Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Hainan are expected to receive continued policy support, which will accelerate infrastructure development [22]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The report provides projections for the net profits of key companies, with expected figures for 2024-2026 showing growth for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction, indicating strong financial health and attractive dividend yields [12][32]. - It emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields as a significant attraction for investors, with companies like Tunnel Shares and Sichuan Road and Bridge expected to maintain robust dividend payout ratios [12][32].