钢铁行业周报：淡季供需双弱，补库存在预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Follow the Market" for the steel industry [2] Core Views - The steel market is experiencing a weak downward trend, characterized by a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, with a decline in molten iron production and increased contradictions in the raw material sector. Market confidence is low, and there is a lack of enthusiasm for steel inventory accumulation [7][17] - The average daily molten iron output has decreased to 2.294 million tons, down 1.32% week-on-week. The production of five major steel products is 8.499 million tons, down 1.25% week-on-week and 6.17% year-on-year, with significant declines in hot-rolled and medium-thick plate production [7][17] - Steel inventory has decreased to 1,118.4 thousand tons, down 1.82% week-on-week and 15.16% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in inventory levels [7][17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel industry has a PE (TTM) valuation of 27.55 times, which is at a mid-level among all industries. The PB (LF) valuation is 0.97 times, indicating a low level compared to other industries [22] Supply and Demand Situation - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 25.78 million tons, up 20.1% week-on-week. However, iron ore arrivals at ports decreased to 22.68 million tons, down 9.9% week-on-week. Port iron ore inventory stands at 149.74 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week but up 26% year-on-year [7][17] - The coking coal mining operating rate is 90.6%, down 0.59 percentage points week-on-week but up 4.89 percentage points year-on-year. Coking coal inventory is 28.56 million tons, up 2.25% week-on-week and 16.43% year-on-year [7][17] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the steel sector has the potential for upward rebound due to the lack of significant supply-demand contradictions and the implementation of incremental policies. The steel sector has seen significant declines and many stocks are trading below net asset value, with low institutional holdings [7][17] - Five main investment lines are recommended: 1. Companies with optimized product structures and stable high dividends, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [7][17] 2. Companies with high technical or cost barriers, such as CITIC Special Steel [7][17] 3. Companies with significant performance elasticity, such as Fangda Special Steel [7][17] 4. Long-term undervalued state-owned enterprises, such as Shandong Steel [7][17] 5. Industry leaders in high-temperature alloys and military-civilian dual-use sectors, such as Steel Research Institute [7][17]