宏观周报：本周看什么？市值考核、鹰派降息

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are increasing, with notable dissent from Cleveland Fed President Hammack and hawkish signals from San Francisco Fed President Daly[21] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices declined, and the dollar index rose by 60 points, while gold prices fell by over $20[21] Group 2: Macroeconomic Data Insights - High-frequency macro data indicates continued strong performance in transportation, coal, and steel sectors, while real estate, cultural tourism consumption, and construction materials are awaiting recovery[7] - Daily average steel production showed a year-on-year increase, while rebar steel inventory decreased month-on-month[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars increased by 12.83% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand[42] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Short-term bond markets should focus on the potential timing of incremental monetary easing, while equity markets should look for further liquidity easing combined with other policy measures[4] - In the context of credit bonds, the extremely narrow credit spreads suggest a focus on tail risks, with a recommendation to consider high-dividend stocks for better liquidity[5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external trade conditions, particularly in light of potential pressures from U.S. tariff policies on exports[5]