农林牧渔行业周报生猪供给充足持续放量，猪价中枢或进一步下移

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The supply of live pigs is abundant and continues to increase, leading to a potential further decline in the price center of pigs [4][45] - The performance of the pig sector continues to deliver results, revealing investment value in the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [5][51] - The supply and demand dynamics for pigs and chickens are positively correlated, with an optimistic outlook for the white chicken market. Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Hefeng Group [5] - The acceleration of transgenic industrialization benefits leading companies, with recommendations for Dabeinong, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [5][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The supply of live pigs is sufficient and continues to increase, with the price center potentially moving downward. As of December 22, 2024, the national average selling price of live pigs is 15.25 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.70 yuan/kg, but a year-on-year increase of 0.76 yuan/kg [14][45] - The slaughter weight of pigs is higher than the same period in 2021, indicating a recovery in supply [45] Weekly Market Performance (December 16-20) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.95 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70% and the agricultural index down 3.65% [15][28] - The average price of external three yuan live pigs on December 19 is 15.41 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from the previous week [15][36] Key News (December 16-20) - The total grain production in China for 2024 is projected to be 1,413 billion jin, an increase of 22.18 billion jin year-on-year [33][60] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the importance of controlling major animal diseases and ensuring food safety [34][61] Price Tracking (December 16-20) - The prices of yellow feathered chickens and corn futures have increased week-on-week [18][63] - The average price of live pigs is showing a downward trend, while the average price of white strip meat has slightly increased [36][45]