产业经济周观点：中国AI崛起有望冲击原有资本全球化体系

Core Views - The rise of China's AI industry may reshape global perceptions of the US tech system, potentially suppressing dollar financing and impacting the existing pricing system [2] - Rapidly rising US real interest rates may reflect intensifying stagflation pressures, increasing the risk of economic downturn [2] - US PCE data indicates potential downward pressure in the services sector, while durable goods manufacturing remains strong [2] - US stocks face dual pressures from stagflation and the rise of China's AI applications, further exacerbating risks [2] - Trump's potential implementation of domestic circulation policies could maintain high US real interest rates in a stagflation scenario, mitigating economic downturn risks [2] - Mid-term optimism for gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications Long-term optimism for state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2] Market Review and Style Shift - Broad-based indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and SSE 50 indices gaining [38] - The technology sector outperformed, while consumer and cyclical sectors saw deeper declines [21] - Market style may be entering a transition window, with high-beta, large-cap, and institutionally heavy stocks showing smaller declines [40] - Foreign investors' futures positions diverged, with IC, IM, and IH net short positions narrowing, while IF net short positions widened [64] Industry Performance - Technology sector led gains, with semiconductors, communication equipment, and components outperforming [73] - Fisheries, entertainment goods, and hotel catering sectors underperformed [73] - Hard tech sectors such as semiconductors and communication equipment led in relative outperformance against the SSE Index [73] Economic Data and Forecasts - The Fed reduced its 2025 rate cut expectations from four to two, citing persistent inflation pressures [15] - US PCE inflation in November was weaker than expected, with core goods inflation rising and core services inflation slowing [32] - US real consumption growth weakened, with core goods consumption stronger than core services consumption [92] - Fed's economic data forecasts show improved expectations for 2025 US economy, with stronger inflation expectations [15] Next Week's Focus - Key data to watch include US Federal Reserve bank reserve balances and China's industrial enterprise profits [77] Sector and Asset Allocation - Mid-term focus on gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications [2] - Long-term focus on state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2]