建材行业2025年度投资策略：存量登场，需求质变

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [11]. Core Insights - The construction materials industry is expected to experience a structural shift in demand, with a significant increase in renovation needs, which are projected to account for nearly 50% of total demand by 2025. This shift is driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption and the growing trend of home renovations [8][41][88]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments, particularly in the cement and glass sectors, where production capacity is expected to decrease, leading to potential price stabilization and recovery in profitability [9][10][138][153]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to see accelerated installations in 2025, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving margins for related materials and coatings [10][261][243]. Summary by Sections Construction Materials Sector - The report emphasizes the need for a shift towards renovation and replacement demand, with existing housing stock becoming a primary driver of growth. The renovation market is expected to grow significantly, supported by government policies [8][41][88]. - Cement demand is projected to decline due to ongoing restrictions in the real estate sector, but supply-side measures may help stabilize prices and improve margins for leading companies [9][138][149]. - The glass industry is currently at a cyclical low, but supply reductions and potential policy support could lead to a recovery in prices and profitability by 2025 [9][177][210]. Wind Power Sector - The report forecasts a significant increase in wind power installations in 2025, driven by national energy targets and increased bidding activity from state-owned enterprises [261][262]. - The report identifies leading companies in the wind power supply chain, such as 中材科技 and 时代新材, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for larger wind turbine blades [243][266]. Carbon Fiber Sector - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing profitability challenges, with expectations for supply constraints and increased demand from the wind power sector to drive recovery in prices [248][289]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and the potential for price stabilization as demand from the wind energy sector increases [248][289]. International Expansion - Companies like 科达制造 are highlighted as leaders in expanding into international markets, particularly in Africa, where demand for construction materials is expected to grow due to urbanization and infrastructure development [253][254][260]. - The report notes that the African cement market presents significant opportunities for domestic companies, with a focus on capturing market share as local demand increases [202][204][260].