食品饮料行业周报：五粮液25年定调营销执行提升年，酒鬼酒人事变动落地期待后续变革

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry in China [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Wuliangye has designated 2025 as the "Year of Marketing Execution Enhancement," focusing on improving five key capabilities to ensure reasonable profits for distributors and build a "shared destiny" with manufacturers [117]. - The report notes a personnel change at JiuGuiJiu, with Cheng Jun returning as General Manager, which is expected to bring about subsequent reforms [117]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in consumption, particularly in the liquor sector, as the peak sales season approaches [117]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data Update - Retail sales growth for tobacco and beverage categories is under pressure, with November 2024 showing a year-on-year change of 3.0% for total retail sales and -3.1% for tobacco retail sales [117]. - M2 money supply increased by 7.1% year-on-year, while the social financing scale for November was 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.13 trillion yuan year-on-year [117]. Liquor Price Data - As of December 20, 2024, the wholesale prices for original boxes of Feitian Moutai and scattered bottles reached approximately 2,335 yuan and 2,240 yuan, respectively, with prices for other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remaining stable [117]. - The report provides specific price points for various liquor products, indicating a stable market for mid-range products [117]. Beer Volume and Price Data - In November 2024, domestic beer production increased by 5.7% year-on-year, although cumulative production for the year showed a decline of 1.5% [117]. - The average import price for barley in November 2024 was 253 USD per ton, down 14% year-on-year, benefiting from the cessation of anti-dumping measures on Australian barley [117]. Dairy Price Data - The average price for fresh milk in major production areas was approximately 3.11 yuan per kilogram, down 15.3% year-on-year [117]. - The report also mentions the average bidding prices for whole and skim milk powder, indicating stable pricing trends in the dairy sector [117]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong fundamental liquor companies with growth potential over the next 1-2 years, including JiuGuiJiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and YingJia GongJiu [113]. - It also suggests investing in high-end liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shide Liquor, as well as beer companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer, which may benefit from upcoming reforms and market recovery [113].