地产行业周报：2025年度策略发布，关注质优企业价值回归

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [37] Core Viewpoints - The year 2025 is expected to be a critical year for the real estate market, transitioning from decline to stabilization, with significant potential for recovery and value return for quality enterprises [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality products and core areas in first and second-tier cities, which are likely to stabilize first [38] - Companies with lighter historical burdens and strong land acquisition capabilities are expected to benefit from market stabilization and improved gross margins due to declining land prices [38] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 cities increased by 8.7% week-on-week, with a daily average transaction increase of 20.5% year-on-year in December [3][42] - The inventory in 16 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.6 months [61] - Land transaction volume increased, with a transaction premium rate of 1.9%, down 2.9 percentage points week-on-week [48] Company Focus - Investors are advised to focus on mid-to-long-term investments in companies with optimized inventory structures, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7] - Companies with valuation recovery potential include Vanke A and JinDi Group [7] - Attention is also recommended for leading companies in sub-sectors such as brokerage (Beike) and property management (China Overseas Property) [7] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector's PE (TTM) is currently at 40 times, which is at the 97.12 percentile of the past five years [56] - The real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.14%, while the real estate sector fell by 4.83% [19][56]