煤炭开采行业2025年度投资策略：新时既启，把握增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry experienced a price decline in 2024 due to weak demand, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices falling year-on-year. However, the second half of the year saw a rebound in coal prices, driven by increased production and inventory accumulation [4][48]. - The report forecasts that the demand for thermal coal will outpace supply growth from 2024 to 2026, leading to a narrowing supply-demand gap and a stabilization of prices around 800 CNY/ton by 2025 [5][14]. - Coking coal prices are expected to decline further in 2025, with a projected average price of around 1900 CNY/ton, influenced by stable but slightly declining demand [14][15]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 859 CNY/ton in 2024, down 104 CNY/ton (-10.8%) from 2023, but the lowest price point in 2024 was higher than in 2023 [27]. - Coking coal prices averaged 2039 CNY/ton in 2024, a decrease of 245 CNY/ton (-10.7%) compared to 2023, with prices remaining low due to weak steel demand [14][27]. Thermal Coal - The supply-demand gap for thermal coal is projected to be 11331/7634/4641 thousand tons from 2024 to 2026, with a gradual improvement expected in 2025 [5]. - The report highlights that if the growth rate of thermal power exceeds expectations, the market price may see upward flexibility due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5]. Coking Coal - The supply-demand gap for coking coal is expected to widen, with a forecast of 222/1878/2056 thousand tons from 2024 to 2026 [14]. - Despite potential price declines, the report notes that current low inventory levels provide a safety net for coking coal prices [14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividends and growth potential, recommending leading firms such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others for investment [15][17]. - The strategy emphasizes a balanced approach between defensive stocks and those with growth opportunities, particularly in the context of changing market conditions [15].