铜行业周报：国内电解铜社会库存降至2024年2月以来低点

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry, with a positive outlook for copper prices in 2025 [147][156] Core Views - The copper market is expected to see a tightening supply and improving demand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap and supporting higher copper prices in 2025 [156] - Macroeconomic factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the strength of the US dollar, have been constraining copper prices, but these constraints are expected to weaken, allowing prices to be driven more by fundamentals [156] - Key drivers for copper demand include power infrastructure investments, home appliance production, and construction activity, with specific indicators such as wire and cable enterprise operating rates and home air conditioner production showing strong growth [13][22][68] Supply Analysis - Global copper concentrate production in October 2024 reached 1.975 million tons, up 2.6% year-on-year, with cumulative production for the first 10 months of 2024 at 18.77 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year [102] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2024 was 148,000 tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year [101] - Domestic port copper concentrate inventories reached 1.338 million tons as of December 20, 2024, up 4.9% week-on-week, hitting a record high for the same period [101] - The domestic scrap copper price spread (refined copper price minus scrap copper price) was 946 yuan/ton as of December 20, 2024, up 5 yuan/ton week-on-week, indicating stronger economic incentives for using scrap copper [3][41] Demand Analysis - Power infrastructure investment remains a key driver of copper demand, with cumulative power infrastructure investment from January to November 2024 reaching 866.5 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, and grid investment reaching 529 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year [9] - Home appliance production, particularly air conditioners, showed strong growth, with November 2024 production reaching 16.71 million units, up 56% year-on-year [22][68] - Wire and cable enterprise operating rates were 86.73% as of December 19, 2024, down 4.30 percentage points week-on-week, but still reflecting robust demand in the power sector [13][68] - Copper tube production, closely linked to home appliance demand, reached 184,000 tons in November 2024, up 11.5% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year, hitting a record high for the same period since 2019 [153] Inventory and Market Trends - Domestic copper social inventories were 99,000 tons as of December 19, 2024, down 19.3% week-on-week, reaching the lowest level since February 2024 [42][90] - LME copper global inventories were 272,000 tons as of December 19, 2024, down 0.2% week-on-week [42] - SHFE copper futures active contract prices were 73,820 yuan/ton as of December 20, 2024, down 1.3% week-on-week, while LME copper prices were $8,944/ton, down 1.2% week-on-week [49][86] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in copper-related companies such as Zijin Mining, CMOC, Western Mining, and JCHX Mining, with a focus on companies with strong copper production growth and favorable valuations [147][156] - Key companies highlighted include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), CMOC (603993.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), and JCHX Mining (603979.SH), all rated as "Overweight" [148]