基建投资保持平稳,关注央企市值管理工作
Soochow Securities·2024-12-23 00:55

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [19][31]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that infrastructure investment remains stable, with notable growth in water, aviation, and railway sectors, while road and municipal investments show weakness. The report suggests that the effects of incremental fiscal policies on physical demand need further observation [19][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprise (SOE) value management, which is expected to enhance investor confidence and potentially lead to valuation recovery for construction SOEs [19][32]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative is entering a new phase of high-quality development, with significant growth in overseas engineering contracts and investments, indicating a positive outlook for international engineering companies [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Commentary - November economic data shows improvements in manufacturing and real estate sales, with infrastructure investment growth slowing slightly to 4.2% year-on-year. Water, aviation, and railway investments grew by 40.9%, 18.2%, and 15.0% respectively, while real estate sales increased by 3.2% year-on-year [8][19]. - Cement production in November decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in real estate investment [19]. 2. Industry Policy Commentary - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, which includes enhancing profit distribution policies and establishing regular stock repurchase mechanisms [19][46]. 3. Belt and Road Important News - From January to October 2024, China's overseas contracting business achieved a turnover of USD 140.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with new contract amounts rising by 16.6% [4][31]. - The report recommends focusing on international engineering sectors, highlighting companies such as China National Materials, Shanghai Port Construction, and others as potential investment opportunities [4][31]. 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction and decoration sector (SW) experienced a decline of 2.01% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A Index saw declines of 0.14% and 1.08% respectively, indicating underperformance [31][48].