2025银行年度策略：顺周期有α，红利或有持续性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the coming year [249]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a series of supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, which may lead to a recovery in credit demand and improved financial performance [243][249]. - The report anticipates a slight improvement in net interest margins due to the gradual repricing of long-term deposits, with a more pronounced divergence in margin changes among banks [250][250]. - The overall credit quality is expected to remain stable, with non-performing loan generation rates projected to hold steady, supported by various policy measures [218][234]. Summary by Sections Interest Rates and Credit Growth - As of November 2024, the average interest rate for new personal housing loans has decreased to 3.08%, while corporate loan rates have dropped to 3.45%, both at historical lows [188]. - The report predicts that credit growth will stabilize in 2025, with a focus on optimizing credit structures rather than merely increasing volumes [217][218]. Non-Interest Income - The report highlights a significant decline in commission income, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to regulatory changes and reduced activity in wealth management and insurance products [226][227]. - It is expected that the low base effect from the previous year will lead to a slight recovery in commission income growth in 2025 [167][218]. Asset Quality - The overall non-performing loan ratio for listed banks is projected to remain stable at 1.25%, with retail loan quality under scrutiny as it has shown an upward trend since 2022 [16][234]. - The report indicates that the retail loan non-performing generation rate has increased to 1.05%, reflecting ongoing pressures in this segment [16][234]. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts a modest increase in net profit growth for listed banks, with expected growth rates of 1.9% and 1.8% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [26][218]. - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to decline further, impacting internal capital generation capabilities [180][218]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong retail operations and high asset turnover, as these are expected to outperform in a recovering economic environment [67][243]. - Specific banks such as Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Bank are highlighted as potential investment targets due to their favorable financial metrics and growth prospects [67][243].