豆包算力需求测算

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the computer industry [1] Core Views - Doubao's MAU reached nearly 60 million in November, ranking second globally behind ChatGPT's 287 million MAU [1][46] - Doubao's MAU growth rate in November was 16.92%, and it is projected to reach 200 million MAU by 2025, approaching ChatGPT's current level [1][46] - Doubao's daily token usage exceeds 4 trillion, with a 33x growth in seven months [1][26] - ByteDance's investment in computing power is expected to grow rapidly, driving the expansion of the AI computing power industry chain [1][46] Doubao's Computing Power Demand and Industry Chain Impact - Doubao's computing power demand is expected to drive value growth across various segments of the computing power industry chain [1][20] - By 2025, Doubao's MAU is projected to reach 200 million, with daily token usage estimated at 133.333 trillion [12] - The peak token multiple is estimated to be 5x the average, with average utilization rates often below 30% [12][47] - Total computing power demand (FLOPS) is estimated to reach 4.01E+20 by 2025 [12][31] - GPU demand is projected to reach 2.711 million units by 2025, with server demand reaching 338,900 units [31][63] - The total value of servers is estimated to reach 271.104 billion yuan by 2025, with GPU and baseboard accounting for 72.6% of the cost [31][63] Data Center and Infrastructure Demand - Data center storage value is estimated to be 11/69 of the server value, reaching 43.22 billion yuan by 2025 [84][63] - The number of optical modules required is projected to reach 813,310 by 2025, with a ratio of 3 optical modules per GPU [54][63] - Total server power consumption is estimated to reach 1.626 million kW by 2025, with power supply value reaching 3.253 billion yuan [55][63] - IDC annual rental costs are projected to reach 15.86 billion yuan by 2025, based on 8kW cabinet rental prices in Chengdu [56][63] - Liquid cooling adoption is expected to increase, with immersion cooling accounting for 20% of the market by 2025 [35][80] Key Companies in the Industry Chain - Chips: Cambricon, etc [17] - Power Supply: Oulutong, etc [17] - IDC: Runze Technology, Yakang, etc [17] - Servers/Motherboards: Inspur, Huamao, Chinasoft, Digital China, TOWIN, etc [17] - Cooling: Envicool, Shenling, Gaolan, etc [17] - Storage: GigaDevice, etc [17]