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石油化工行业2025年度投资策略：拾级而上，结构分化
长江证券·2024-12-23 01:50

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [33] Core Views - Global refining capacity is growing at a slow pace, while weak demand has led to a decline in refined oil product profitability, with chemical products showing a weak recovery [6] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate around 70/barrelduetotightsupplyandresilientdemandfromChinaandtheUS[6]−Theindustry′sprofitabilityisexpectedtoimproveasdomesticpoliciestakeeffectanddemandfromrealestateandconsumptionsectorsrecovers[6]−Thereporthighlightsinvestmentopportunitiesinhigh−endmaterialsandprocesstechnologyimportsubstitution,suchasPOE,ethyleneprocesstechnology,andCOC/COP[7]−Theinvestmentfocusisonhigh−qualitygrowth,growthstocks,andhigh−dividendsectors[8]KeyInvestmentThemesTheme1:SlowRecoveryandQualityLeaders−Thedomesticeconomyisexpectedtorecoverslowlyin2024,withindustryleadersbenefitingfrombothvolumeandpriceincreases[30]−Thepetrochemicalindustryisexpectedtoreturntoitsnormalcapacitycycle,withinventorylevelsathistoricallows,indicatingapotentialrecoveryinindustryprofitability[29]Theme2:ImportSubstitutionofHigh−EndMaterials−Thereportisoptimisticabouttheinvestmentopportunitiesinhigh−endmaterialsandprocesstechnologyimportsubstitution,includingPOE,ethyleneprocesstechnology,andCOC/COP[7]Theme3:High−DividendState−OwnedEnterprises−State−ownedenterpriseswithstablecashflowsandhighdividendyieldsareexpectedtoseearevaluation,especiallyunderthebackdropofhighoilpricesandongoingstate−ownedenterprisereforms[31]OilPriceOutlook−Oilpricesareexpectedtofluctuatearound70/barrel due to tight supply and resilient demand from China and the US [6] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve as domestic policies take effect and demand from real estate and consumption sectors recovers [6] - The report highlights investment opportunities in high-end materials and process technology import substitution, such as POE, ethylene process technology, and COC/COP [7] - The investment focus is on high-quality growth, growth stocks, and high-dividend sectors [8] Key Investment Themes Theme 1: Slow Recovery and Quality Leaders - The domestic economy is expected to recover slowly in 2024, with industry leaders benefiting from both volume and price increases [30] - The petrochemical industry is expected to return to its normal capacity cycle, with inventory levels at historical lows, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [29] Theme 2: Import Substitution of High-End Materials - The report is optimistic about the investment opportunities in high-end materials and process technology import substitution, including POE, ethylene process technology, and COC/COP [7] Theme 3: High-Dividend State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises with stable cash flows and high dividend yields are expected to see a revaluation, especially under the backdrop of high oil prices and ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [31] Oil Price Outlook - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate around 70/barrel, with limited downside due to tight supply and resilient demand from China and the US [6] - The report notes that OPEC+ has consistently exceeded its production cut targets since 2020, except for May and July 2020, indicating strong price support from major oil-producing countries [121] Refining Capacity and Demand - Global refining capacity is expected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China and the Middle East contributing significantly to new capacity [62] - Domestic refined oil product demand has weakened due to economic slowdown and the impact of new energy vehicles, leading to a decline in profitability [68] Chemical Products and Profitability - Chemical products are in a weak recovery phase, with some products seeing improved profitability due to better terminal demand [6] - The report highlights that the profitability of some chemical products has improved, but overall industry profitability remains under pressure due to high raw material costs and weak demand [6] Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on high-quality growth companies such as Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-growth private oil and gas producers like Zhongman Petroleum, Xinjiang Natural Gas, and Guanghui Energy [31] - High-dividend state-owned enterprises like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec are also highlighted as key investment targets [31] Risks and Challenges - The report does not include specific risk warnings, but it notes that the industry faces challenges from weak global demand, economic recovery uncertainties, and potential execution risks in state-owned enterprise reforms [128]