纸价延续温和反弹，以旧换新加码可期轻工制造

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a mild rebound in paper prices, with expectations for increased demand through trade-in programs. The production of mechanical paper and cardboard in China reached 13.766 million tons in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a cumulative year-to-date increase of 9.1% [2][11] - Major paper manufacturers such as Nine Dragons, Xianhe, Wuzhou, and Huawang are expected to have strong sales performance. Cultural paper prices are set to increase by 100 yuan per ton in January and 200 yuan per ton in February, while corrugated box prices are experiencing frequent small increases [2][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home furnishing sector, driven by government subsidies for equipment upgrades and trade-in programs, with estimates suggesting that if subsidies reach 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, leading companies could achieve double-digit growth [2][11] Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report notes that paper prices are experiencing a mild upward trend, with supply disruptions continuing. Some paper mills plan to halt production in January, while downstream orders are expected to increase due to the New Year and Spring Festival [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies like Sun Paper and flexible targets such as Nine Dragons Paper, Xianhe Co., Huawang Technology, Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, and Shanying International [2][11] Home Furnishing Sector - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a subsidy policy for 2025, which is expected to help leading home furnishing companies return to positive growth. As of December 19, over 53 million home renovation and replacement products have been subsidized [2][11] - Companies such as Minhua Holdings, Kuka Home, Xilinmen, and Mousse are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this policy, with expectations for significant growth in the coming year [2][11] Consumer Trends - The report discusses the trend towards smart glasses, with the Prime Minister of China showcasing products like Rokid ARlite, indicating a shift towards embracing technological changes. The market for smart glasses is expected to recover in 2025 due to low inventory and new product certifications [2][11] - Traditional consumer leaders such as Bull Group and Morning Light are anticipated to see a revival, alongside structural growth in companies like Baiya, Dengkang Oral, and Yadi Holdings [2][11] Export Market - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to positively impact orders. In November, China's export value increased by 6.7%, although furniture and parts exports saw a decline of 2.6% year-on-year [2][11] - Companies with strong overseas layouts, such as Yongyi Co., Jiangxin Home, and Gongchuang Lawn, are highlighted as key players to watch [2][11]