宏观周报：加强央企市值管理，美联储降息但放鹰

Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government aims to enhance domestic demand comprehensively, focusing on increasing consumer capacity and willingness through fiscal measures and social security improvements[6]. - In 2024, the government plans to allocate 3.9 trillion yuan in new special bonds, with expectations for the limit to exceed 4 trillion yuan, to support local government projects and stimulate economic growth[8]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, emphasizing quality development and strategic mergers and acquisitions[10]. Economic Indicators - The Markit Composite PMI for the U.S. in December reached 56.6%, the highest since March 2022, indicating strong economic growth but uneven performance between sectors[32]. - The Eurozone's Composite PMI for December was 49.5%, indicating continued contraction in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, while services showed some resilience[16]. - Japan's exports grew by 3.8% year-on-year in November, while imports fell by 3.8%, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.6 billion yen, better than market expectations[17]. Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market reacted with increased bond yields and a decline in major stock indices, reflecting concerns over future monetary policy tightening[19]. - The Fed's updated projections indicate a potential increase in interest rates in the coming years, with 17 out of 19 officials expecting rates to exceed 3.5% by 2025[19]. Sector-Specific Developments - The real estate market is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand due to optimized local government bond management, which will support housing projects and improve market conditions[8]. - The government is focusing on new consumption sectors such as culture, tourism, and digital economy, aiming to foster innovative consumption models[6].