国君研究|全行业周观点1223-1227

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with expectations, but the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been reduced to two instances, indicating a more hawkish stance[28] - The decline in short-term interest rates is seen as a positive for technology consumption, while the uncertainty surrounding long-term rate cuts may disrupt market stability[5][7] Market Trends - The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds have strengthened, leading to a drop in gold prices and a decline in U.S. stock markets, consistent with previous reports indicating concerns over long-term rate cuts[5] - The 30-year Treasury yield has decreased by 9.04 basis points to 1.9526%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields across various maturities[12] Investment Strategies - Emphasis on sectors with lower selling pressure, particularly in electronics and communications, is recommended as these industries are expected to perform better in the current market environment[13] - The report suggests a gradual buying strategy in real estate, as monthly sales area and amount have shown year-on-year growth, supported by rapidly declining interest rates[15] Economic Indicators - The report highlights that the inflation issue in the U.S. is becoming more structural, necessitating fiscal cooperation for effective management, which may weaken the Federal Reserve's influence[16] - The political bureau's recent statements are expected to support market sentiment and liquidity, with a focus on individual stocks and themes for the upcoming year-end rally[17] Sector Recommendations - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, making it a favorable investment area[29] - The report advises focusing on resilient companies with growth potential in cyclical industries, particularly those benefiting from domestic demand policies and supply-side opportunities[30]