宏观周报：鹰派美联储助推美元

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales was 3%, a significant decline from 4.8% in October[35] - The month-on-month growth rate of retail sales in November was lower than seasonal trends, confirming the weak consumption outlook[35] Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November was 3.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October[22] - Private fixed asset investment declined by 0.4%, continuing a negative growth trend for four consecutive months[22] - Month-on-month fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10%, consistent with the average of the past five years (excluding 2020)[22] Real Estate - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales turned positive at 3.25%, the first positive growth since 2021, although physical work volume remains poor[6] - New housing sales in first-tier cities have weakened, with sales dropping below the 2021 trend line[25] - The trend of real estate development investment shows an L-shaped bottoming pattern, indicating a prolonged recovery phase[24] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP and PCE inflation expectations while lowering unemployment rate forecasts, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook[9] - The market has priced in a potential interest rate cut of 20-30 basis points for the next year, despite no immediate actions from the central bank[41]