国防军工行业投资策略周报：景气改善趋势渐显，重视当前军工板块配置价值

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a focus on the military industry sector [36]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus on the end of the small cycle adjustment in the industry is increasing, suggesting a focus on leading companies with clear demand expectations and supply scarcity [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the current overall allocation value of the sector, especially in the context of annual valuation switching [47]. - The report highlights the potential for sustainable focus on state-owned enterprise reforms, which may enhance market value management [47]. Summary by Relevant Sections Military Industry Investment Strategy - The report outlines four key investment strategies for the military sector based on the PB-ROE model: 1. Focus on stable growth in ROE, particularly in military trade, aviation engines, large aircraft, and maintenance, with attention to companies like Aviation Industry Corporation of China and others [1]. 2. Emphasize turnaround strategies, focusing on companies likely to experience ROE cycle bottoms and reversals [1]. 3. Highlight the trend of improving ROE elasticity and potential space, with a focus on new quality forces such as efficient cost-performance weapons and commercial aerospace [1]. 4. Monitor the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms on sustainable growth [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Aviation Power: Expected revenue of 49.76 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits projected at 1.52 billion yuan [2]. - Guorui Technology: Anticipated significant growth in radar business and low-altitude safety services, with expected related transactions exceeding 9.56 billion yuan in early 2025 [3]. - Guangwei Composite Materials: Projected net profits of 0.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on carbon fiber applications in aerospace and wind energy [4]. - Zhongke Xingtu: Positioned to benefit from the rapid development of the aerospace industry and digital economy, with a focus on low-altitude economic infrastructure [5]. - Haige Communication: Comprehensive coverage in wireless communication and Beidou navigation, with expected growth from partnerships in high-precision services [6]. Market Performance - As of December 20, 2024, the military industry index has shown a relative performance of 10.12% compared to other indices [8]. Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2024, the military sector accounted for 3.58% of active fund holdings, indicating a slight increase from the previous quarter [14]. Future Projections - The report anticipates significant growth in net profits for various companies in the military sector, with projections for 2024-2026 indicating a positive trend in profitability and valuation metrics [51][53][54].