房地产行业研究周报：量价企稳继续验证，政策接力仍是关键

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [19][13] Core Viewpoints - The industry is showing signs of stabilization in both volume and price, with policy support being a key factor [19][13] - The market consensus on the bottoming out of the real estate sector is strengthening, with expectations for short-term policy adjustments and long-term valuation recovery [19][13] - The first and third quarters of 2025 are anticipated to present opportunities for positive year-on-year growth, potentially boosting market stabilization expectations [25][19] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Focus on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief, policy support, and demand recovery [13][14] - Consider leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional firms with improved market share [13][14] - Highlight potential in undervalued non-state-owned and local enterprises due to financing and policy support [13][14] 2. Transaction Overview - From January to November, new residential sales area decreased by 16.0%, with total sales area down by 14.3% [22][24] - As of November, the inventory of unsold residential properties increased by 18.4% year-on-year [22][24] 3. Market Dynamics - In November, 17 out of 70 major cities saw an increase in new residential prices, while 10 cities experienced a rise in second-hand residential prices [5][24] - First-tier cities showed a stabilization in new residential prices, with significant increases in Shanghai and Shenzhen [24][6] 4. Financing Trends - From January to November, the total funds available for real estate development decreased by 18.0% [23] - Domestic loans and personal mortgage loans saw declines of 6.2% and 30.4%, respectively [23] 5. Important Announcements - The political bureau's meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a potential turning point in the fundamentals [13][19]