纺织服装海外跟踪系列五十四：耐克二季度业绩超预期，产品线调整和库存清理致下半财年压力加大

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [49] Core Insights - The report indicates that FY2025 Q2 revenue and profit exceeded both management guidance and market consensus, despite a decline in sales due to reduced foot traffic in direct channels and the company's proactive reduction of classic shoe models [3][21][59] - The management expects a low double-digit decline in revenue for Q3, with gross margins anticipated to decrease by 300 to 350 basis points, indicating increased pressure in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][56] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For FY2025 Q2, the company reported revenue of $12.354 billion, a year-over-year decline of 7.7%, which was better than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of a 9.2% decline [5][21] - The decline in sales was primarily attributed to decreased foot traffic in direct channels and a proactive reduction in classic shoe models, although November sales during Black Friday in North America and Double 11 in Greater China exceeded expectations [3][21][59] Regional Performance - Revenue across all regions showed a decline, with North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific Latin America performing better than Bloomberg's consensus estimates. In contrast, Greater China underperformed [18][22] - Specifically, North America saw a revenue decline of 8%, EMEA by 10%, and Asia-Pacific Latin America by 2%, while Greater China experienced an 11% decline [22] Product and Channel Analysis - By product category, footwear revenue decreased by 12%, while apparel revenue saw a smaller decline of 2%. The proactive reduction of classic shoe models has negatively impacted short-term revenue but is expected to benefit long-term brand development [22][59] - In terms of sales channels, direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue fell by 14%, primarily due to a 21% decline in e-commerce, while wholesale revenue decreased by 4% [50] Management Guidance - The management has adjusted its guidance for the second half of the fiscal year, indicating that the pressure on revenue and gross margins will be greater than previously anticipated due to accelerated product mix adjustments and inventory health focus [39][56] - The company plans to enhance its focus on professional sports segments and improve product lifecycle management while reducing reliance on classic shoe models [55][59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality suppliers and retailers within the industry chain, particularly Shenzhou International and Huali Group, as well as core retailer Tmall, which is expected to benefit from Nike's recovery post-adjustment [59]