能源周观点：油价短期企稳，中期仍偏空

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral short-term outlook for oil prices while remaining bearish in the medium term [14][15]. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish due to anticipated oversupply from OPEC+ production quotas by 2025 [14][15]. - Domestic crude oil inventories are higher than historical levels, while international inventories are lower, leading to a divergence in supply and demand dynamics [14][15]. - The report highlights that Brent crude oil is supported at around $70 per barrel, with a potential decline to $60-65 per barrel if oversupply occurs [14][15]. Oil Market Summary - As of December 20, 2024, Brent futures were priced at $72.94 per barrel, down $1.55 from the previous week, while WTI futures closed at $69.46 per barrel, down $1.83 [14][15]. - OPEC+ production quotas are projected to lead to an oversupply of 36.846 million barrels per day by December 2025, increasing to 38.076 million barrels per day by September 2026 [14][15]. - Domestic refinery operating rates continue to decline, indicating weak demand for refined products [14][15]. Natural Gas Market Summary - The report indicates a bullish outlook for natural gas prices this winter, driven by improved demand expectations in Europe and the U.S. [18][29]. - As of December 20, 2024, TTF prices were at $13.40 per MMBtu, up $0.73 from the previous week, while JKM prices were at $14 per MMBtu, down $1 [22][18]. - U.S. natural gas production is recovering, with an increase of approximately 60 million cubic meters per day expected in the next 1-2 months [51][29]. Coal Market Summary - As of December 20, 2024, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 767 RMB per ton, down 23 RMB from the previous week [23][29]. - National raw coal production in November 2024 was 428 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.38%, with coal imports at historical highs [65][29]. - The daily coal consumption of key power plants was stable at 5.32 million tons, indicating that consumption growth is not keeping pace with supply [73][29].