化工新材料行业周报：地缘冲突缓和，油价再度走跌

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Avoid" with an expectation that the stock price will underperform the market by more than 10% within the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices due to easing geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude futures dropping by 2.17% and Brent crude by 1.86% from December 13 to December 20 [3]. - OPEC+ has extended production cuts, which may alleviate supply surplus pressures in the first half of the upcoming year, although the IEA reports a projected global oil supply surplus exceeding 1 million barrels per day [3]. - The demand side shows a decrease in gasoline consumption and an accumulation of inventories, despite potential holiday travel boosting gasoline demand [3]. - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see a positive trend as inventory depletion continues and end-user demand improves, with recommendations to focus on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [43][57]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decrease in oil prices, with significant developments in ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts [3]. - OPEC+ has voluntarily delayed production cuts to manage supply pressures, while the EU's sanctions on Russia may impact oil exports [61]. - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, which may negatively affect oil demand [3]. Chemical New Materials - The chemical new materials market is facing challenges with terminal demand growth not meeting expectations, and supply release rates accelerating significantly [5][62]. - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for refrigerants, with prices remaining high due to tight supply and increased production in the home appliance and automotive sectors [74]. - The fertilizer market is supported by strong cost structures for phosphate and ammonium, with winter storage demand pushing prices [33]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is witnessing a positive inventory depletion trend, with expectations of improved end-user demand and a cyclical upswing [57]. - Companies involved in semiconductor materials are recommended for investment due to the anticipated recovery in demand and domestic substitution trends [43].