山西证券：研究早观点-20241223
Shanxi Securities·2024-12-23 03:29

Core Insights - The report highlights that Hubei Yihua plans to acquire 100% equity of Yichang Xinfatou for a cash consideration of 3.208 billion yuan, increasing its stake in Xinjiang Yihua from 35.60% to 75%, which enhances its growth potential [2] - Post-acquisition, the company will add significant production capacity including 600,000 tons/year of urea, 300,000 tons/year of PVC, 250,000 tons/year of caustic soda, and 30 million tons/year of coal, thereby expanding its scale advantages and upstream coal resource layout [2] - The report projects that the net profit of Yihua Mining will reach 1.129 billion yuan in 2025, supported by a commitment of at least 3.012 billion yuan in cumulative net profit over three years, reflecting strong growth confidence [2] Company Overview - Hubei Yihua's existing major products include urea, diammonium phosphate, PVC, and isobutanol with production capacities of 1.56 million tons/year, 1.26 million tons/year, 840,000 tons/year, and 60,000 tons/year respectively [5] - The company is positioned well within the "fertilizer + coal + coal chemical" industry chain, which is expected to provide a competitive edge [5] Cost Advantages - Yihua Mining's coal resources are located in the Xinjiang Zhuandong Wucaiwan mining area, with a total resource reserve of 2.108 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 1.32 billion tons, characterized by shallow burial, stable geological structure, and favorable resource endowment [3] - The average coal production cost from January to July 2024 is reported at 73.17 yuan/ton, indicating a strong cost advantage that mitigates risks during market downturns [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Hubei Yihua from 2024 to 2026 are 934 million yuan, 1.049 billion yuan, and 1.280 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 11 times [5] - The acquisition's implied price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 13 times based on the increased equity stake, which is seen as beneficial for minority shareholders [2]