农林牧渔行业2025年度投资策略：周期轮回，均值回归，细分龙头，优势凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the transition from high profitability driven by price to high-quality development driven by cost reduction [10][38]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is shifting towards high-quality development, with cost leadership becoming a core competitive advantage for enterprises. The report highlights that companies with cost advantages are expected to achieve better profitability in 2025 [10][38]. - The report recommends key players in the industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as they are expected to perform well in the long term [10][38]. - The poultry farming sector is anticipated to experience a profitability upturn, with recommendations for Lihua Food and Shengnong Development [10][38]. - The feed sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a continued recommendation for Haida Group as a leading player [10][38]. - The pet industry is projected to maintain high growth, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [10][38]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The current price cycle indicates that the peak may have passed, with limited growth in the breeding sow inventory and improvements in production efficiency. The industry is expected to be profitable in 2025, although profitability may decline in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024 [11][21][38]. - The report notes that the proportion of large-scale producers (over 1,000 heads) has increased significantly, reaching 68% in 2023, which contributes to improved production efficiency [10][11][18]. Price Cycle - The price cycle of pigs has shown a different pattern since 2021, with shorter durations of price fluctuations compared to previous cycles. The report indicates that the price reached a high of over 25 yuan/kg in 2022 and is expected to fluctuate around 21 yuan/kg in 2024 [12][17][21]. Breeding Entities - The development logic of industry players has shifted from high leverage and rapid expansion to cost reduction and stable development. This change is reflected in the declining capital expenditures and fixed asset growth among listed pig farming companies [24][38]. Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to reach a turning point, with Haida Group highlighted as a key player benefiting from improved profitability and market share [10][51]. Poultry Farming - The report anticipates continued high profitability in the yellow feathered chicken sector, with a recovery in white feathered chicken profitability driven by consumer demand [10][38]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing growth, with leading domestic brands increasing their market share from 17% in 2021 to 24% by October 2024. The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and consumer engagement strategies for these brands [10][52].