电新行业2025年度投资策略：新元肇启

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, with expectations of significant growth in non-European and American markets, projecting a demand increase of around 50% by 2025 [1][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Middle East has a long-term optimistic demand outlook, with at least 20GW of renewable energy projects expected to be tendered annually. India's National Energy Plan aims for a cumulative installed capacity of 186GW by 2026-2027 and 365GW by 2032, which is anticipated to drive terminal demand growth [1]. - In Europe, short-term growth is expected to stabilize around 19% due to factors such as electricity prices and supply-demand imbalances. The report notes that Spain's delayed projects are expected to come online in the first half of the following year, contributing to steady growth [6]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue growing despite challenges such as tariffs and local production capacity shortages. The report suggests that Chinese companies with international capabilities will find ways to adapt and maintain profitability [6][7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic supply chain is under pressure, with various segments experiencing cash losses. Capital expenditures have been declining for three consecutive quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. anti-dumping policies on Southeast Asia [8]. - A market clearing process is accelerating, with many second and third-tier companies facing financial strain, leading to a broader industry cleanup [8][9]. Policy and Industry Self-Regulation - Recent policy initiatives aim to help the photovoltaic industry recover from current challenges, with a focus on preventing "involution" or excessive competition. A quota agreement among 33 participating companies aims to control production capacity and achieve supply-demand balance [9][12][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of industry self-discipline and regulatory support to foster a healthy competitive environment and sustainable development [9][24]. Price Trends and Market Recovery - There are early signs of price increases in the photovoltaic supply chain, with specific segments like silicon wafers and battery cells showing price recovery. The report anticipates a broader acceleration in price increases post-Spring Festival [29][31]. - The report projects that the global photovoltaic installed capacity growth rate will remain high at 15%-20% in 2025, with non-European markets expected to sustain a growth rate of around 50% [91].