造船行业深度报告（六）：船用发动机专题：站在周期、技术、后市场模式变迁的转折点

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for China Power and China Shipbuilding, with a focus on the marine engine sector and related companies [2][14]. Core Insights - The marine engine sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with demand for ship engines steadily increasing due to environmental technology transitions and market changes. The report highlights that the global market for marine engines is expected to reach approximately 650 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2030, with potential growth to 1500 billion CNY in the long term [2][12][23]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of marine engines is on an upward trend, with the average price of low-speed engines increasing by 4% in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 44.17 million CNY per unit [2][39][68]. - The report identifies China Power as a leading manufacturer in the low-speed engine market, benefiting from technological advancements and market positioning, with a domestic market share of 78% and an international market share of 39% [2][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The marine engine is a critical component of shipbuilding, accounting for about 20% of the total ship cost. The report notes that the engine's order and delivery cycles lag behind those of the shipbuilding sector, with a typical delay of 6-9 months [2][51][56]. 2. Demand Dynamics - Demand for marine engines is closely tied to new ship orders, driven by market conditions, aging fleets, and environmental upgrades. The report estimates that global demand for marine engines will reach approximately 22.5 million horsepower annually from 2024 to 2025, with a significant portion of this demand coming from the aftermarket, which is projected to be worth 100-120 billion CNY annually from 2024 to 2030 [2][12][23]. 3. Supply Conditions - The supply of marine engines is characterized by a weak recovery and a strong concentration of market share among leading manufacturers. The report indicates that the supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, with environmental transitions and the trend towards larger vessels accelerating market concentration [2][12][23]. 4. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts a long-term upward shift in profitability for marine engines, driven by stable demand and rising prices. The average profit margin for China Power is expected to improve as the company capitalizes on its market position and technological advancements [2][12][23]. 5. Key Players - The report highlights major players in the marine engine market, including China Power, HHI, and HSD, noting that China Power has significantly increased its market share in recent years [2][60][33].