土地收储预期下的城投改善之路

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development sector and the real estate services sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference in December reaffirmed the "de-inventory" path for land and existing housing storage, with related policies expected to accelerate [3]. - Local governments are likely to prioritize the acquisition, replacement, or adjustment of plans for idle land or existing housing developed by urban investment companies, facing relatively lower resistance [3]. - Urban investment companies are expected to leverage this opportunity to alleviate inventory pressure and transition towards transformation [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Urban Investment Holdings and Urban Construction Development, while also suggesting attention to urban investment companies that have established transformation strategies and are expected to accelerate their transformation through storage [3]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition Trends - Urban investment companies have significantly increased their land acquisition amounts and areas, with the proportion rising from 17%/26% in 2020 to 51%/67% in 2022, and maintaining high levels in 2023-2024 [1]. - The land acquisition prices and premium rates of urban investment companies are significantly lower than the overall market levels, essentially using leverage to supplement local finances and stabilize the land market [1][3]. - The report highlights that the majority of land acquisition by urban investment companies is concentrated in first-tier cities and the Yangtze River Delta [1]. Operational Challenges - Due to the adjustment in the real estate market and the disparity in development capabilities between urban investment companies and leading real estate firms, many acquired plots are unable to commence construction on time, leading to increasing capital occupation and debt issues [1][3]. - The overall construction commencement rate for urban investment projects from 2021 to 2024 is only 22%, significantly lower than that of central state-owned enterprises (72%-78%) and private enterprises (44%) [1][3]. Recommendations for Investment Opportunities - The report suggests two directions for considering investment opportunities in urban investment companies under the backdrop of land storage: focusing on companies that have acquired significant land between 2021 and 2024 and those that are likely to accelerate their transformation through storage [1][3].