食品饮料周报（24年第52周）：五粮液传递稳健增长预期，关注春节备货窗口期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Wuliangye is expected to deliver stable growth, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival stocking period [2][13]. - The overall food and beverage sector is anticipated to improve as macro policies aim to boost domestic demand, with a recovery in consumer sentiment expected [2][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Wuliangye's recent conference indicated a high-quality completion of marketing efforts for 2024, with adjustments made to cope with economic and demand weaknesses. The company aims for steady growth despite high inventory levels and weaker dealer payment enthusiasm compared to previous years [9][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival for liquor companies, with a focus on maintaining dealer relationships and managing inventory risks [9][35]. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.59% from December 16 to December 20, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.89 percentage points [11][40]. - The report notes that the price of Feitian Moutai has slightly increased, while prices for Wuliangye and Guojiao remained stable [11][40]. Alcohol Sector - The report suggests three investment themes: 1. Leading companies with proven risk resilience such as Wuliangye, Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu [9][35]. 2. Companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jinsuiyuan that may see valuation recovery due to emerging demand pressures [9][35]. 3. Companies showing signs of upward momentum in their financial reports, such as Yanghe and Kuaijiao [9][35]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report indicates that the demand for consumer goods is on the rise, with a focus on policy-driven improvements. The beer sector is expected to see stable demand during the off-season, with a shift towards high-end products in non-on-trade channels anticipated for 2025 [9][35]. - Snack companies are preparing for the peak season, with a focus on those showing positive short-term changes in fundamentals [9][37]. Dairy Sector - The dairy sector is experiencing pressure on revenue and profitability due to weak demand and excess supply. However, the report anticipates a turning point in supply and demand dynamics by 2025, recommending leading dairy companies with strong valuation margins [9][38].