海外市场周观察：美联储降息路径生变

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%[4] - The dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts for next year from 4 to 2[4] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that if inflation does not consistently move towards 2%, the pace of rate cuts may slow down[4] Economic Data Insights - The Q3 annualized GDP growth rate was 3.1%, exceeding both the previous and expected values of 2.8%[24] - The core PCE price index for Q3 was 2.2%, higher than the previous and expected values of 2.1%[24] - The final value of Q3 real personal consumption expenditures was 3.7%, above the previous value of 3.5%[24] - November retail sales increased by 0.7%, surpassing both the previous and expected values of 0.5%[24] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the US stock indices experienced significant declines, influenced by hawkish comments from Fed officials and the adjusted rate cut expectations[4] - The market now anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, reflecting a substantial cooling of rate cut expectations[4][14] Asset Performance - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Russian Ruble appreciating by 5.36% against the Renminbi, while CBOT soybean oil fell by 6.37%[4][66] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.99% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.25%[30][60] Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims decreased to 220,000 from the previous 242,000, indicating a tightening labor market[24] - Continuing claims also fell to 1.874 million from 1.879 million, further suggesting labor market resilience[24]