Overseas Macro - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The market is pricing in a more hawkish rate cut path, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 4.6%[1] - November PCE inflation was weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5%[28] Domestic Macro - In November, China's retail sales growth was significantly below expectations at 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 4.6%[32] - Fixed asset investment growth in November was 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.4%[51] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with November housing sales area reaching 81.88 million square meters, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.3%[33] Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales in November increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.5%[64] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.4%[64] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024-2025 was lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively, from 4.4%[26]
宏观周报：12月FOMC鹰派降息，国内经济动能环比走弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2024-12-23 05:24