电力行业2025年度投资策略：辨微探幽，遍处光华

Industry Overview - The power industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the "carbon neutrality" era and power market reforms, leading to a comprehensive revaluation of power operators' intrinsic value [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-quality thermal power transformation companies such as China Resources Power, Fujian Funeng, Huadian Power, and others, as well as large hydropower companies like China Yangtze Power and SDIC Power [6] - The new energy sector is expected to see a turnaround, with recommendations for companies like Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and China Three Gorges Renewables [6] Hydropower Sector - China Yangtze Power's expected dividend yield for 2025 is projected to drop to 3.2%, which would correspond to a market value of 812.3 billion yuan, representing a 15.6% premium over the benchmark market value [3] - The report highlights the importance of micro-level analysis for hydropower and nuclear power as representative dividend assets, with macro interest rate declines expected to enhance their attractiveness [24] - The hydropower sector is recommended for investment, particularly large-scale hydropower projects like China Yangtze Power, SDIC Power, and Huaneng Hydropower [6] Nuclear Power Sector - Nuclear power assets in China are geographically divided, with significant regional policy differences, particularly between the northern and southern regions [21] - Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces have different policy logics for nuclear power marketization, but both expect similar directions in electricity pricing [40] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the marketization of nuclear power in various regions, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangxi, highlighting the different market participation mechanisms and pricing strategies [40][55][56] Thermal Power Sector - Thermal power companies have seen improved profitability due to stabilized coal prices and reduced costs, with significant contributions from annual long-term contract price negotiations [30] - The report notes that thermal power companies' valuations have been supported by expectations of further power system reforms, particularly following high-level discussions on deepening power system reforms [30] - The thermal power sector is expected to maintain stable profitability, with limited adjustments in electricity prices and a focus on volume growth and structural opportunities [24] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector faces significant pricing pressure due to the increasing proportion of marketization, which has led to concerns about electricity price reductions [58] - The report suggests that the new energy sector's pricing pressure can be alleviated through mechanisms such as green electricity and green certificate trading, as well as government-authorized contract systems [74][100] - The report highlights the rapid growth of green certificate issuance in China, with 35.51 billion green certificates issued as of October, covering a significant portion of new energy generation [97][99] Marketization and Policy Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of detailed analysis in the power industry, particularly for thermal, hydropower, and nuclear power sectors, as market electricity price fluctuations may have short-term impacts but are expected to stabilize in the long term [24] - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the power market, including the participation of various power sources in market transactions and the different market rules across provinces [40][55][56] - The report also highlights the potential for policy-driven improvements in the new energy sector, particularly through mechanisms like green electricity trading and government-authorized contracts, which could provide stable pricing expectations for new energy projects [74][100] Regional Analysis - The report provides a detailed regional analysis of nuclear power marketization, highlighting the different policies and market participation mechanisms in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangxi [40][55][56] - The report also discusses the regional differences in new energy marketization, with some provinces implementing high or full proportion market participation, while others have lower market participation rates [73] - The report notes that the western regions, such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai, face higher risks due to their high proportion of new energy market participation [83]