交通运输行业周报：国货航即将上市，关注利率下行背景下稳定类资产的长期投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation sector [68]. Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil transportation rates showing some recovery, while VLCC faces structural demand pressures. The aging trend of global oil tankers is expected to continue until 2025, with potential marginal improvements in crude oil transport demand [52][68]. - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger traffic has seen a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 18%, with expectations for continued growth in 2025. The supply of aircraft is projected to grow at a low single-digit rate, indicating a tightening supply-demand gap [16][53]. - The express delivery industry is witnessing a seasonal adjustment in pricing post the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a projected 19% year-on-year growth in parcel volume. The competitive landscape remains stable, but price competition may intensify in the coming year [21][68]. - The logistics sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly for companies like Debon Logistics and Jiayou International, which are expected to benefit from operational synergies and market expansions [39][42]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Crude oil transportation rates have shown some recovery, but VLCC faces ongoing structural demand challenges. The aging fleet is likely to impact performance until 2025, with potential demand improvements from OPEC and shale oil production [52][68]. - The report recommends focusing on leading oil shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [52]. Aviation Sector - Domestic passenger traffic has increased by about 18% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in 2025. The supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a low single-digit rate, indicating a tightening supply-demand gap [16][53]. - Investment recommendations include China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines due to their recovery potential [53]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry is experiencing a seasonal adjustment in pricing, with a projected 19% year-on-year growth in parcel volume. The competitive landscape remains stable, but price competition may intensify in the coming year [21][68]. - Recommended companies include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express due to their strong market positions [68]. Logistics Sector - Debon Logistics is highlighted for its growth potential despite recent performance pressures, with expectations for operational synergies from its integration with JD Logistics [39][42]. - Jiayou International is also recommended due to its strong performance in the African logistics market and its strategic acquisitions [42][49].