宏观观点：日本央行不急于加息，关注薪资和外部不确定性

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.25% with an 8 to 1 vote, with one member advocating for a rise to 0.5%[1] - The next monetary policy meetings are scheduled for January 24 and March 19, 2024, with a potential rate hike more likely in March[1] - The decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by rising external uncertainties and the need for clearer domestic wage trends[1] Group 2: Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. government's policies, particularly regarding fiscal, tariff, and immigration issues, is a significant concern for the financial markets[1] - The overall wage trend in Japan is expected to become clearer by March or April 2024, coinciding with the annual "Shunto" labor negotiations aimed at improving wages[1] - Recent political instability in Japan, including the ruling party losing its majority in the Diet, adds to the uncertainty affecting the yen's value[1] Group 3: Inflation and Wage Trends - Japan has recently experienced a mild inflation level that is generally welcomed after a prolonged low-inflation environment[1] - Prime Minister Kishida has called for greater wage increases during the upcoming "Shunto" negotiations, indicating a focus on improving worker compensation[1] - The potential for a rapid depreciation of the yen could increase pressure for an earlier interest rate hike if inflation expectations rise significantly[1]