钢铁行业周报：关注钢铁从底部反弹到长期反转的投资机遇

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [21] Core Insights - The steel price continues to decline due to concerns over domestic demand, despite clear policy signals for increased support. Further breakthroughs in steel prices may require external risks to diminish and more concrete policy goals to be established [21] - The steel industry has entered a significant bottoming phase, with visible inventory at historical lows and a strong likelihood of a rebound in 2025 due to macroeconomic benefits from external interest rate cuts and internal consumption promotion policies [21][33] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-quality steel companies that are optimizing their product structures and benefiting from the transition of demand from real estate to manufacturing [33] Summary by Sections Steel Demand and Supply - Apparent steel consumption decreased by 1.29% week-on-week and 2.68% year-on-year, with long products down 0.08% and sheet products down 2.30% [21] - Daily pig iron production fell to 2.2941 million tons, a decrease of 3.06 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [21] - Total steel inventory continued to decline, down 1.85% week-on-week, with rebar inventory down 4.78% and hot-rolled inventory up 0.19% [21] Price Trends - Shanghai rebar prices dropped to 3,350 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled prices fell to 3,420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [21] - The estimated profit margin for rebar is approximately 71 CNY/ton below the breakeven line [21] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for a long-term reversal in the steel industry, driven by improved demand structures and stricter capacity controls [21][33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement to suspend new steel capacity indicates a shift towards a reduction-focused development phase in the steel industry [21] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-quality steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from profit and valuation recovery [33] - New material processing companies with strong competitive positions are also highlighted as worthy of attention [33]