2025年度策略报告：披荆斩棘，行则将至

Macroeconomic Overview - The US economy in 2024 is characterized by a "stability" tone, with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts to stabilize dollar liquidity[10] - China's economy in 2024 faced challenges in domestic demand recovery, with a gradual policy response to address structural issues[11][25] - The policy framework in China focuses on both short-term and long-term measures, including debt resolution and fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery[26] Policy and Market Trends - The US election outcome in 2024 will significantly impact global economic policies, with potential shifts in trade and fiscal strategies under a Republican administration[31] - China's policy response to external pressures includes expanding domestic demand and implementing fiscal measures to counterbalance trade tensions[104][126] - The interaction between US and Chinese policies will shape global macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on demand-side reforms in China and supply-side reforms in the US[31][126] Asset Class Analysis - The 2025 asset class framework is built around financial conditions and domestic demand recovery, with a transition from "financial headwinds/weak domestic demand" to "financial tailwinds/domestic demand recovery"[7] - Key themes for 2025 include increased volatility in exchange rates, cautious optimism in the bond market, and a focus on dividend stocks in the equity market[7] - Commodities are expected to see structural convergence, with a focus on reflation opportunities driven by US economic cooling and domestic policy support[7] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The US-China trade relationship will be influenced by tariff policies, with potential impacts on global inflation and economic stagnation[121] - The resolution of geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, will play a crucial role in shaping global capital flows and economic recovery[63][71] - The US dollar's strength will be influenced by global economic conditions, with potential weakening if geopolitical tensions ease and non-US economies recover[63][91]