周报：美联储明年降息节奏或减缓，我国经济弱复苏

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, aligning with market expectations[1] - The Fed's updated economic forecast indicates only two rate cuts in 2025, down from the previously expected four cuts, reflecting a more hawkish stance[1] - As of December 20, the market anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, indicating a shift in expectations[1] Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US Dollar Index rose to 107.84, up 0.84% from the previous week, supported by the Fed's stance[1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate reached 7.2985, with the Renminbi depreciating by 190 basis points, approaching the 7.3 warning line[1] Economic Recovery in China - China's economy shows signs of weak recovery, with November retail sales growing by 3.0%, below the expected 5.3%[2] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) in November increased by 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[11] - Manufacturing investment recorded a growth of 9.3%, maintaining a relatively high growth rate despite a slight decline from October[11] Industrial Production and Investment - The industrial added value in November rose by 5.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.21%[9] - Infrastructure investment in November grew by 9.7%, indicating stability in this sector[13] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 11.6%, although sales figures showed signs of improvement[12]