燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：欧洲气价因俄乌领导人排除续签管道气过境协议可能而上涨，中、美或迎寒潮气价上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies [26]. Core Insights - European gas prices have risen due to the exclusion of a renewed transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, while the US and China may face price increases due to upcoming cold weather [7][10]. - Domestic and international gas prices continue to show a price inversion, with LNG import prices exceeding domestic production prices by 0.5 yuan per cubic meter [26]. - The average total supply of natural gas in the US has decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, while total demand has dropped by 1.3% [10][26]. - European gas consumption has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in supply from LNG terminals [10][26]. - Domestic natural gas consumption is projected to grow by 10.2% year-on-year, with production increasing by 7.5% and imports by 13.6% [26]. Price Tracking - As of December 20, 2024, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +14.8%, European TTF +5.6%, East Asia JKM -8.1%, China LNG ex-factory +1.4%, and China LNG landed price +2.7% [3][26]. - The domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3.1 yuan per cubic meter, while the landed price is 3.6 yuan per cubic meter [30]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The US may experience a cold wave, leading to a week-on-week price increase of 14.8% [10]. - European gas supply has increased by 2.0% week-on-week, with significant contributions from LNG terminals and Norwegian pipeline gas [10][26]. - As of December 19, 2024, European gas inventory stands at 878 TWh, down 124.9 billion cubic meters year-on-year [10][26]. Pricing Reform Progress - 56% of cities at the prefecture level and above have implemented residential pricing reforms, with an average price increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [26][64]. - Recent price adjustments in provincial capitals have prompted other cities to follow suit in the pricing reform process [26][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can benefit from cost reductions and pricing reforms, highlighting key companies such as Kunlun Energy, China Gas, and Blue Sky Gas [26][66]. - Attention is also drawn to companies with strong long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Co [26][66].